Hezbollah's Hold Weakens, Turning a Political Page in Lebanon

 

Hezbollah had a firm hold over Lebanon for many years. The extremist gang outgunned the nation's forces with its enormous weaponry. It had authority over Lebanon's most vital government institutions and vital infrastructure, including its commercial port and Syrian border. Without its support, almost no significant political decisions could be made, and no political party could effectively oppose any action taken by it or its backer, Iran.

However, the long-standing status quo has now been upended, marking a change for Hezbollah and the beginning of a new era in Lebanon politics. The formerly impenetrable Shiite Muslim group has been shattered by 14 months of fighting against Israel. Bashar al-Assad, its principal ally in neighboring Syria, was overthrown by rebels. Iran is now weaker as well because Israel has severely impacted it and its friends.

After more than a year of conflict and unrest, the Middle East is experiencing a realignment of power, and Hezbollah is in its weakest position in years. Even if the group still has thousands of fighters and the support of the majority of Shiite Muslims in the nation, analysts say that one thing is certain: Hezbollah and Iran's unchallenged control in Lebanon seems to be coming to an end. Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, described it as a "new political reality." He continued, "What we've seen so far is enough to show us that the tide has turned, but it will take time for this new reality to unfold."

After years of political impasse that many detractors blamed on Hezbollah's attempts to thwart any attempt at resolution, Lebanon's Parliament chose a new president on Thursday, exposing those shifting political sands. For more than two years, the nation has been led by a feeble and ineffective caretaker administration due to political stagnation. Many in Lebanon believed that the election of Gen. Joseph Aoun as the country's military commander on Thursday was an important step in establishing stability. Hezbollah also viewed it as a compromise, and some observers thought it was an admission that the group could no longer paralyze the government.

Many sects and factions from Lebanon's more than a dozen religious groupings have fought for influence and power since the country's founding. Agreements between parties and sects, as well as their foreign supporters, are essential to its precarious political structure. Since a 15-year civil war ended in 1990, the nation has been teetering from crisis to crisis, and that system has kept it together.

Hezbollah, a terrorist organization and political party, has outwitted its domestic adversaries and formed strategic alliances over the last thirty years to solidify its position as the true force supporting the nation's fragile and unstable state. For its primarily Shiite supporters, Hezbollah established an extensive network of social services, like as free education and first-rate medical treatment, even as the government battled to keep the lights on and the water flowing.

However, the group has suffered a number of catastrophic blows over the last three months. Its conflict with Israel cost the nation billions of dollars in reconstruction costs, eliminated Hezbollah's top leadership, and destroyed a significant portion of its weaponry. Hezbollah's professed justification, that it was the only force capable of protecting Lebanon from Israel, was likewise destroyed by its crushing defeat.

Then, when Syrian rebels, whom Hezbollah had previously battled, overthrew the Assad regime last month, the group lost a political ally in addition to their primary land bridge for finance and weapons. Since Mr. al-Assad was overthrown, Iran, the ally of Hezbollah, has also been on the defensive due to rising tensions with Israel, including direct combat via rocket fire.

Hezbollah played a major role in the Axis of Resistance, Iran's network of anti-Israel militias, which disintegrated, removing Tehran's capacity to project power as far south as the Arabian Sea and west as the Mediterranean.

Even while Hezbollah and its supporters attempt to portray themselves as the nation's agenda setters, their power to shape Lebanese politics has decreased in the absence of those pillars of support. When the Hezbollah-backed presidential candidate pulled out of the contest late Wednesday night, it was clear that their influence was waning even before the vote. Sami Nader, the head of the Political Sciences Institute at Saint Joseph University of Beirut, stated that Hezbollah's "narrative has been seriously discredited, its military has been seriously weakened, and, in my view, politically it will have to start paying the price."

Even in its diminished form, Hezbollah continues to be Lebanon's most powerful political organization, according to the majority of specialists. However, they contend that this is more a reflection of the nation's governmental disarray and internal strife than it is of the group's hold on power. The parliamentary vote on Thursday was a prime example of that dysfunction, with many arguments breaking out before the votes were cast.

According to observers, General Aoun's election as president on Thursday marks the beginning of the process of drawing a new political map for the nation and the region. Most people believe that Saudi Arabia and the United States support General Aoun. The Saudis used to compete for influence in Lebanon, but Iran and Hezbollah eventually overtook them.

General Aoun claimed the day marked "a new phase in Lebanon's history" and alluded to the vision he and his allies have for a new political age in Lebanon in his victory address.

He called the Arab states that Iran had formerly driven out of Lebanon "brotherly." He made reference to the state's "right to monopolize the possession of weapons," which is a subliminal allusion to demands that Hezbollah disarm after its 60-day cease-fire with Israel expires subsequently this month. And without the militias like Hezbollah that have long drawn the nation into internal strife and conflict, he envisioned a state that could be protected by its own national army.

"I promise to advocate for a defensive approach and the creation of a state — I reiterate, a state — that makes investments in its armed forces, maintains control over all borders, and carries out international agreements," General Aoun stated.

However, analysts warn that Hezbollah may potentially make a comeback because the nation is only beginning this new phase of politics. The group will face several crucial litmus tests in the upcoming months, including as whether it can assist in rebuilding the huge areas of the nation that have been damaged by the conflict and whether it completely withdraws from southern Lebanon as specified in the cease-fire agreement.

According to Paul Salem, vice president for international engagement at the Middle East Institute in Washington, "Hezbollah has been dealt staggering blows in terms of its strategic powers and its ability to confront Israel." "But within Lebanon, it continues to be the most powerful and See More ........